The EU plan for a new EV monopoly by 2035 will falter as China’s sales push gains momentum. Will Brussels dilute its green transition, or risk its flagship industry?
The current EU ban plans allow for hydrogen to be used. The only problem is that it seems to be a bad idea. Even for long range trucking, where it had the most potential.
There are two hydrogen fill stations between my home and work, they definitely get used, and the price per kg of green hydrogen is still trending downwards. It’ll never be the next big thing, hydrogen is heavy and has several of the other problems of gasoline that EVs always solve. But for people who need personal transport, and need to frequently go larger distances than one battery charge will support, hydrogen fuel cells solve a problem EVs have, without going back to fossil fuels; fuelling up takes negligible time.
I think hydrogen cars will have a niche for a long time to come, enough to keep the technology around and evolving.
Yeah this is it, the problem is that even once you solve the technology problem, it becomes the choice between two logistics problems, distributing liquid fuel for refilling, and moving large amounts of power on the grid on demand. The latter is a solvable problem, but the former is just so well understood.
Certainly, most people are better served by EVs today, for their personal vehicle needs. But I think hydrogen will be a compelling option for people with specific needs beyond the short term. Especially with continued investment in that technology in Japan.
I find it a wild take to think that the 5% (or fewer?) “special” people will be enough to sustain a completely new, separate refueling network. If anything, these people may switch from gas/diesel to EVs a little later.
EV charging infrastructure has a big potential to become a lot more flexible than whatever refueling infrastructure would allow, e.g. inductive charging, maybe even on the road, is likely to become a thing; battery swapping will become a thing at least within standardized fleets; on-car solar panels may start producing enough energy to allow typical daily commutes; … Over time, all that will ease pressure on the grid. Add in the requisite grid upgrades and Job’s your juncle.
Economics is usually the all-overriding factor. Green hydrogen has a built-in price multiplier in comparison to electricity because it’s based on electricity but adds a bunch of extra inefficiencies in both production and in usage. And the cars are more expensive and much more intricate too. Apparently, in regular use-type situations like buses, current fuel cell designs even need to be replaced every 3 or so years.
Toyota can’t make all of the inefficiencies go away. Even less so if Japan continues to produce its hydrogen from Australian coal. Toyota has had a couple of failed bets (H2, solid-state batteries), to the degree that they’re now so incapable in future tech, they need BYD to help produce models for the Chinese market. In RoW, they needed to go all-in on a 20-year-old technology that has extremely questionable decarbonization potential (gas hybrids).
Other Japanese car manufacturers are also seeing their market share eroded in China and iirc, Mitsubishi even left the market outright. Meanwhile, German companies with their expensive and lackluster but workable EVs are at least doing ok-ish there.
The current EU ban plans allow for hydrogen to be used. The only problem is that it seems to be a bad idea. Even for long range trucking, where it had the most potential.
I might be wrong, but the industry has long given up on hydrogen on the road.
There are two hydrogen fill stations between my home and work, they definitely get used, and the price per kg of green hydrogen is still trending downwards. It’ll never be the next big thing, hydrogen is heavy and has several of the other problems of gasoline that EVs always solve. But for people who need personal transport, and need to frequently go larger distances than one battery charge will support, hydrogen fuel cells solve a problem EVs have, without going back to fossil fuels; fuelling up takes negligible time.
I think hydrogen cars will have a niche for a long time to come, enough to keep the technology around and evolving.
Charging is rapidly improving. BYD is at 400km in 5min of charging today. That mostly solves the distance problem.
the main issue imho is delivering that kind of power through cables - you need the electrical infrastructure to enable ‘insane loading’.
Yeah this is it, the problem is that even once you solve the technology problem, it becomes the choice between two logistics problems, distributing liquid fuel for refilling, and moving large amounts of power on the grid on demand. The latter is a solvable problem, but the former is just so well understood.
Certainly, most people are better served by EVs today, for their personal vehicle needs. But I think hydrogen will be a compelling option for people with specific needs beyond the short term. Especially with continued investment in that technology in Japan.
I find it a wild take to think that the 5% (or fewer?) “special” people will be enough to sustain a completely new, separate refueling network. If anything, these people may switch from gas/diesel to EVs a little later.
EV charging infrastructure has a big potential to become a lot more flexible than whatever refueling infrastructure would allow, e.g. inductive charging, maybe even on the road, is likely to become a thing; battery swapping will become a thing at least within standardized fleets; on-car solar panels may start producing enough energy to allow typical daily commutes; … Over time, all that will ease pressure on the grid. Add in the requisite grid upgrades and Job’s your juncle.
Economics is usually the all-overriding factor. Green hydrogen has a built-in price multiplier in comparison to electricity because it’s based on electricity but adds a bunch of extra inefficiencies in both production and in usage. And the cars are more expensive and much more intricate too. Apparently, in regular use-type situations like buses, current fuel cell designs even need to be replaced every 3 or so years.
Toyota can’t make all of the inefficiencies go away. Even less so if Japan continues to produce its hydrogen from Australian coal. Toyota has had a couple of failed bets (H2, solid-state batteries), to the degree that they’re now so incapable in future tech, they need BYD to help produce models for the Chinese market. In RoW, they needed to go all-in on a 20-year-old technology that has extremely questionable decarbonization potential (gas hybrids).
Other Japanese car manufacturers are also seeing their market share eroded in China and iirc, Mitsubishi even left the market outright. Meanwhile, German companies with their expensive and lackluster but workable EVs are at least doing ok-ish there.