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Russia might be advancing, but it is doing so incredibly slowly. Over the last year Russia took 0.75% of Ukraine. None of which being a major city. Saying Ukraine will fall due to that is pretty naive. This is clearly a war of attrition.
When you look at that Russia is in much worse shape. Its massive Soviet era weapons stockpiles are shrinking. The economy seems to be in trouble and they have to pay a lot of money to attract new soldiers. This is not to say the war will end soon. I can not predict that, but that there are other metrics involved in a war, which matter a lot. Keep in mind that WW1 ended with not a single enemy soldier on German core soil(besides colonies).
Russia is even paying mercenaries and leaning on allies to send troops from China and North Korea - that sounds pretty desperate to be honest.
All the countries neighboring Russia would turn to NATO.
putin’s regime is the best marketing to join NATO.
Russia will attack the next country. (If this country falls, guess what?)
All that “next countries” are NATO countries. It would not end well for Russia.
Only if the NATO would act… and THAT would depend on the circumstances.
- A full on invasion? Ok, chances are good that the NATO would indeed respond.
- An insurrection backed by somewhat deniable “green men”? Weeelll…
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What does that have to do with liberal priorities? Why does everything have to be liberal/fascist and progressive/conservative nowadays? Are people universally happy in countries which are not liberal? Or is this just an “anti-liberal” propaganda which is currently very popular?
Let me guess… communism is the solution?
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You wouldn’t believe how much i - right now in this moment - want to smack my head in my desk really hard reading such utter waste of electrons?
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If some kind of plausally deniable local insurgency was being backed by Russia, NATO wouldn’t need to worry they would just let the local authorities handle it. If they started turning up with drones, rocket launchers, and military vehicles it would be suspicious so they would have to keep things small scale and if it’s small scale the local military will be able to cope.
I’m just imagining a bunch of right-wing nutcases running around with AKs, they would probably shoot their own feet off.
Well, lets wait and see…
Yes, small scale. Just a 3 day special operation 🫠
Kazakhstan…
Russia’s current military doctrine is to not allow any Western countries to border their territory (utterly stupid military doctrine but that is Soviet era thinking for you).
Kazakhstan isn’t a Western country so there’s no need to attack them. The problem Russia has is all the oligarchs stole the military funding so they now don’t really have anything except a lot of meat that they can throw into the grinder. That sort of works in Ukraine where NATO aren’t prepared to fully deploy, but that changes if Russia attacks them directly. Then the Western military industrial complex will swing into action and God knows what’ll come out the other side.
Russia’s current military doctrine is to not allow any Western countries to border their territory
Norway, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland: am I a joke to you?
Yeah which is why they’re currently so twitchy.
Of course if they weren’t so aggressive Norway and especially Finland wouldn’t have joined NATO. That’s what I mean about it being a stupid military doctrine, it sort of made sense back in the Soviet era but it has not been updated for the late 20th century, let alone the 21st.
Russia is trying to restore the Soviet Union and Kazakhstan is a key country for that. Especially since it has a massive Russian population similar to Ukraine.
