Summary
London talks aimed at securing a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia have been downgraded and will no longer include US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and special envoy Steve Witkoff.
The US state department blamed logistical reasons, but it was clear the decision was last-minute and left the Foreign Office wrongfooted.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has ruled out recognising occupied Crimea as Russian territory, after reports suggested this was being considered by the US and the Kremlin. “Ukraine does not legally recognise the occupation of Crimea. There’s nothing to talk about,” said Zelensky.
Ukraine’s ministry of strategic industries said it was “naïve” to expect Ukraine to change its position on “non-negotiable” issues such as Crimea.
Well, obviously. If the US isn’t already in cahoots with Russia and are just that dumb, there’s a good chance they’ll continue being dumb by throwing them a much needed line.
The thing that Trump and his goons fail to realize is that they hold no cards as long as a few major European countries hold the line. Russia is running out of cannon fodder, just lost a sizeable part of its munitions supply, and its economy is stretched to the breaking point. Unless Trump can force the Ukrainians to capitulate, Putin is hosed. And what leverage does Trump actually have? He’s gutted the US’s warfighting capability, so he can’t intervene militarily on the side of Russia (and might face a mutiny if he even tries). The US was already an unreliable supplier of materiel under Biden, largely due to the Republicans in the House and Senate interfering with deliveries, and Zelenskyy, not being a raving idiot, has certainly made other plans for how to stay armed. And Trump has also destroyed US soft power, so that’s not a possibility.
I have ‘US starts to sell arms to r*ssia’ on my bingo card this year. 🙃
Go big or go home. “Russia starts using nukes and us government blames ukrainians for it”
That doesn’t seem unlikely to me, since Trump has destroyed the basis of trust with his allies and is thus doing considerable damage to one of the few US industries that is still functioning well, namely the arms industry.
Perhaps he somehow thought that Europe would buy the weapons needed to equip itself because he has unilaterally terminated NATO protection from US companies. Maybe a few that you can’t get anywhere else, but the EU would be incredibly stupid to buy from a nation that is now hostile to it.
So other buyers will probably have to be found - although Russia has its own arms industry and is also on good terms with China. Moreover, unlike Trump, Putin really isn’t an idiot.
But hey, maybe the EU can negotiate a billion-euro arms deal with Russia to get better conditions for Ukraine.
It would hardly be any different from buying weapons from the US.
I think it is unlikely. The us is extremely expensive compared to Russia or China, like a janitor in an American weapon factory is probably better paid (in absolute terms, not taking into account cost of living or anything) that a top engineer in a Russian or Chinese one. I don’t think they could afford them.
That’s true, but he will still need new buyers because his previous allies, whom he has alienated greatly, will very likely reduce their order volume considerably.
I think that this so-called statesman, with his petty power games, has once again overestimated himself on this issue - as with others issues but in the same stupid manner.
I mean I hate to say this, but the world looks like it might turn in a horrifying way that would make your argument completely null. All Trump has to do is say I got a great deal with China, we’re going to let them take Taiwan and sell Russian weapons. They’ve agreed to buy our bonds with the Russian war payments to fund our economy, best deal ever.
Now suddenly it’s completely and utterly hopeless. Just a few months ago I would have assumed this to be impossible. But today…