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Cake day: June 5th, 2023

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  • For how long though? The issue with detecting AI generated stuff, Id imagine, is that a picture contains a finite amount of information, especially a digital one. These things have been improving relatively quickly, and I cant think of any fundamental reason why one could not eventually create images where every pixel is as it would be if that image were real, or at least close enough that detection is not even theoretically possible if you dont have some actual proof that the event depicted couldnt have happened. We may not be there yet, but the closer we get to it, the more prone to error and therefore less useful any detection algorithm must be.





  • I think drone warfare so far has shown that one of the advantages of drones, for a weapon, is their ability to be produced cheapy, en masse, and with a relatively limited manufacturing infrastructure. Assuming you have the computer parts anyway, which are abundant in today’s society. One of the implications of that, I think, is that in future asymmetric or civil wars and the like, they’re not going to be like fighter jets or tanks, where one side will have them and the other must improvise countermeasures. They’re going to be like guns and explosives, where both sides are going to have access to at least some degree.




  • If the violence actually stops that and doesn’t just become a symbolic victory where the fascists get to keep the laws they passed at the cost of a punch at the legislative floor, sure. But that wasn’t my point. I wasn’t saying “violence in politics is a bad thing to consider under any and all circumstances”, but “if a country has reached a level of polarization where even the members of its governing body feel the need to resort to that with eachother, things have already gone wrong”. It’s a symptom of a serious problem coming to light, not the problem itself, in other words.





  • I dont think Putin would let him nuke Ukraine. Beyond issues with it being on their border, and their own military forces occupying part of the country, a missile launched from the US towards Ukraine is going to look a whole lot like one launched from the US towards Russia, at least at first, and the nature of nuclear conflict is such that you generally would launch your own missiles when you see your rival’s missiles coming, rather than waiting to see where they land. Trump seems to care what Putin wants, and nobody is going to want their main rival, even if their leader is currently one you have influence over, to be launching nuclear missiles in the direction of one’s country.

    The EU is even less likely, since France is both one of its most prominent members and a nuclear power itself.