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Cake day: June 12th, 2023

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  • I think Putin needs a straw man right now so that he can use as a punching bag for the elections.

    And what better one then the opposition you have locked away in your basement.

    I don’t think this will save Putin’s reputation, but I understand the strategy.

    In his way of saying “Who will you vote for? This man that faints in my dungeons?! Or me, the one who will send you all to die at the Ukrainian front for questioning me?”

    I don’t think the people of Russia will give an honest answer. But I think that is the point. Because mathematicians are standing by just waiting to analyze last years approval ratings with this years.

    Because even if you can rig an election, how much you can rig an election is very different.

    I imagine those numbers are going to tell a story of Putin’s disapproval across Russia.




  • It means stuff like heating/food will become necessary to the Russians. The Russian Meat waves are going to be a lot slower, and easier to spot with thermal.

    Russia will need thermal clothing for it’s soldiers to outlast the winter. Maybe even thermal masking clothing to just stay hidden.

    Many will die of hypothermia regardless. Fires will be too dangerous and make encampments easier to spot.

    However there is a solar storm going on, so communications this week are going to be a bit fuzzy for both sides. I fear it will hit Ukraine a bit harder then Russia, but it’s not like Russia has a good system of communication anyway beyond: Go here, take this hill, stay there until dead.


  • The approximately 40-page document, which the Israeli authorities code-named “Jericho Wall,” outlined, point by point, exactly the kind of devastating invasion that led to the deaths of about 1,200 people.

    Then, in July, just three months before the attacks, a veteran analyst with Unit 8200, Israel’s signals intelligence agency, warned that Hamas had conducted an intense, daylong training exercise that appeared similar to what was outlined in the blueprint.

    “I utterly refute that the scenario is imaginary,” the analyst wrote in the email exchanges. The Hamas training exercise, she said, fully matched “the content of Jericho Wall.”

    So they did know. They even knew the plan of attack and still did nothing.

    At best case, the officials in intelligence that made that call should be fired for incompetence. At worst case, for letting it happen.



  • Ogolobyak is said to have counted out the stabs aloud until he got to 666.

    I thought that part might be a bit over dramatized, but nope, he did it.

    "He served in the Storm Z unit for six months… He is disabled after being wounded. He can walk, but the wound was a serious one. He isn’t working yet, he’s recovering. He’s not likely to be drafted back into the special military operation

    Keep in mind that Russia is redrafting people with only 80% blindness, so if the Russian army didn’t want him after this disability, it either is a very serious disability, or he is lying.


  • Those people are population, potential labor and soldiers.

    Logistically, you are right, Russia is down a population size of about 2 million from the start of the war. Worse is that those are mostly going to be trade skill and factory workers.

    That being said, I think Putin is seeing those immigrants as more of an unstable element. In that those migrants might give your population ideas… like separation, leaving too, rebellion, or resistance. Which for a repressed Russia, would be a like lighting a match on a powder keg.

    As much as Russia needs the extra manpower, I think Russia can’t afford the potential of an insurrection.


  • Apart from the diplomatic warning to India, US federal prosecutors have also filed a sealed indictment against at least one suspect in a New York district court, the FT report said.

    Looks like another assassination plot that failed, it also explains why they aren’t sharing too many details if the investigation is ongoing.

    I think this is just the US’s way of telling India that we have their scent, and to make sure nothing is left at the end of the trail.

    Probably because they want this to full stop.




  • So, go and ask Taiwan for unification. Strike a deal, give them rights, allow them to pay taxes.

    The problem with Xi, is not his vision, but in his methods.

    He has harassed Taiwan for more than decades. Throwing missiles over it’s landmasses. Using maps claiming taiwan is in China’s territory. Blockades, embargos, and threats of annihilation.

    And it isn’t like Xi couldn’t turn this around, but every day he chooses to escalate tensions in the region rather then reaching for peaceful solution. It is clear his motives are not reunification. At least for the Taiwan people.



  • Which they are more then free to deploy… at a cost.

    Sadly any country is going to have to weigh the cost of war, the cost of losing that war, the cost of losing personnel/equipment in that war, and the cost of basically ruining the physical assets they are trying to collect due to sabotage, collateral damage, misfires, and “misappropriation.”

    Sadly by the time they are done, the market value of those assets would be purely theoretical at best, if any value at all.

    So it doesn’t make sense for a country like China to invade the greater portion of Africa. But they might try sting operations, or devaluing of African assets within their own market to put pressure.

    The risks being that the “belt and road” initiative might fall through too whatever the choice.


  • You cannot ask direct questions like: Do you want to overthrow the dictator? And expect a realistic answer in a dictatorship.

    You also cannot ask a question like: Should Russia keep it’s territories? Because if you are in a dictatorship, you can go to prison for the wrong answer.

    You can lose your job if what you say can be taken from the wrong context.

    Merely the fear that such reprisal exists, means that the overwhelming population cannot answer truthfully, even if they wanted to.

    So I would take these polls with a grain of salt.



  • Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly has, meanwhile, sought to reassure investors about the state’s finances. “I affirm that the Egyptian state has not failed and will not fail to pay any of its international obligations,” he said in April.

    Amid a foreign currency crunch, Egypt has drawn down net foreign assets in the banking system by more than $40 billion in two years, partly used to prop up the pound.

    It seems like this deal would be beneficial in some ways, because it sounds like the world bank is kind of writing off parts of this debt already.

    This way it allows for Egypt to build it’s economy towards something different, at the expense of basically having to feed, dress, house, and police, 2 million people who are going to be hellbent on getting back at the people who harmed them.

    On that topic, how does Israel have the power to write off debt?

    House Republicans unveiled a $14.3 billion aid package for Israel on Monday

    Oh… right… we’re helping pay for it… o_o


  • He then says that when a unit of 20 men attack a Ukrainian position only “two or three come back.”

    None come back, because Russian commanders are starting to execute soldiers that retreat.

    He says: “Yesterday Sam flew the plane and said that just 8 people were sitting in the trench, just 8 khohols [Ukrainains], f*ck! And our men go there by the hundreds, and they are not even capable of taking a f**king thing!”

    "Snipers and machine gunners are sitting there, and that’s it! There is absolutely no one else there!

    8 vs. hundreds, no wonder Russia thinks they can take the village. I would have too.

    Unfortunately, it looks like the tactic of going in one by one like a row of ducks through a minefield, is a pretty dumb tactic as far as military blunders go.