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Cake day: June 29th, 2023

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  • There was a sincere risk of Russia using nuclear weapons earlier in the conflict, around the winter of 2022/2023 when the first major Russian mobilization of 600k failed to achieve the desired outcomes and the North Western front started to collapse. The released intelligence info put it at about 50/50.

    This is why, at the time, the Biden administration made several clearly coded messages/announcements that nuclear weapons usage in Ukraine would result in an overwhelming conventional retaliation that would remove Russian military capability from the board. It’s also part of the reason nations were so slow to provide advanced support capabilities. There was a fear (justified, imo) that immediately opening the floodgates and giving Ukraine tanks, jets, advanced missiles, and using those missiles to strike deep in Russian territory would result in usage of nuclear weapons. It still is a risk, honestly. If Ukraine started doing heavy damage to Moscow, there’s a real chance Putin might decide to flip the table over rather than lose the game.






  • It is currently the beginning of Feb and our normal weather here is a few days of snow, usually a few inches, usually at least one large to shut everything down (like 10+"). Overcast. In the 20s and 30s (F).

    I went skiing on Saturday and have never seen so much literally bare ground outside of the very early or very very late season.

    I went to a protest today. Parked a distance away and walked. It was 68°. It feels like the end of April. We got almost no snow - only like a foot unseasonably early in the middle of November. The wildfire season this year is going to be rough, and the summer will be brutal.