• 5 Posts
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Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: November 19th, 2023

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  • I don’t see how his plans are lacking actually. They’ve already established dialogue with Russia. It’s going well both according to the US and Russia. Seems to me that there’s a very good chance they will come to an agreement this year.

    I agree that the end of the war will be negotiated by the Trump admin, and likely this year, since the AFU can’thold out much longer. Certainly, his relationship with Russia is much better than Biden’s, but tbh that’s a very low bar to clear.

    When I say that Trump’s plans are lacking, I am referring to his overall geopolitical strategy. I might have missed out on some development that happened recently since I haven’t kept up with the news this week, or maybe I just don’t see the big picture yet.

    Ruining the relations with Europe could be part of the strategy here.

    This is a possibility, I’ll keep an eye on it.

    Whom do they need hard power against if they normalize relations with Russia exactly?

    They will need some level of hard power maintained in europe to pressure any European government or left-wing movement against doing things that will harm American investments. They will need hard power to defend against the ruse of such movements to begin with. I don’t think it’s far fetched to assume that the Trump admin is aware of the possibility of large scale populist upheavals in Europe bringing harm to American assets. Especially with climate change and nationalist sentiments intensifying.

    That’s in the optimistic scenario that relations with Russia are fully normalised. Although I suppose in a full divestment scenario none of this is necessary.


  • I think Trump genuinely understands that the war is a sunk cost, and on top of it he knows that it’s going to be an Albatross around his neck if he doesn’t end it.

    I don’t think it matters what Trump’s genuine beliefs are or aren’t. His administration’s ability to execute his plans is severely lacking, that’s even assuming that his words line up with what the admin wants behind closed doors.

    Furthermore, the rapprochement with Russia will allow him to divert resources to Asia which is where the US sees a real threat now. In the grand scheme of things, Europe is just not that important anymore from the US perspective.

    I think it will prove to be much more difficult to divest from Europe than people are expecting, and that like most of Trump’s gambits, his admin will half ass it and call it a day.

    The amount of American capital invested into Europe is staggering. The UK alone has more American FDI than the entirety of the south-east Asia (including China). US corporations also store 64% of their foreign assets in Europe. My point is that America cannot actually divest from Europe. It has to maintain a hard power and soft power presence in the continent to safeguard its capital. If Europe starts buying large quantities of American weapons (as Trump wants them to), it only strengthens American interest in the region.

    I expect that either the US and Russia work something out, which I think is most likely, or the US will simply bail on Ukraine and cut their losses. The reality is that the US is unable to keep the war going much longer materially, and unlike the Europeans, they actually acknowledge this fact.

    Well, the Americans and Russians will have to work something out at some point to end the war.








  • He would have been only 14 at the end of World War II so it seems unlikely that he could have helped the Nazis.

    Ok that’s actually pretty funny. My friend was talking about Soros as if he was a nazi collaborator infiltrating Jewish societies to out people. Technically, he was part of the Judenrat established by the Nazis, but he was forced to join at the age of 13 and made to hand out deportation notices (what I’m seeing in Wikipedia).



  • If we are talking about an industrialized country, then absolutely, farmers need to be taxed just like everybody else. Farmer subsidies leads to overproduction of food, much of which is then intentionally destroyed (by the farmers, or supermarkets) to keep prices high. If you think that the elimination of farmer subsidies will lead to higher food prices and thus hunger, do note that it is possible to redirect subsidies into food allowances for the poor. For instance, the US spends about $14 billion per year in agriculture subsidies (barring covid, during which subsidies jumped to above $40 billion). On the other hand, for the entire world, the cost of eliminating (or drastically reducing) hunger can be as low as $7 billion per year depending on the approach.

    And this isn’t even the radical solution. The actually radical solution for eliminating the food problem entirely would be to nationalize the agriculture industry and switch the whole country to a vegetarian diet. If we do this in the entire industrialized world, and fund aggressive hunger elimination programs, then the question of food instability, even taking climate change into account is solved.











  • This is the kind of analysis you get when you have no understanding how organizations work. Mao was not some lone actor who miraculously acquired supreme power, and then starved “half of China” for shits and giggles apparently.

    Anyone familiar with the way that Mao operated knows that he made frequent use of the mass line and mass mobilisation. He also made use of the collective leadership of the party, and was often frustrated by their lack of cooperation with him (at one point even threatening to launch a revolution against the party). Even anti-communists who have at least studied China in detail know that the lone dictator nonsense is well, nonsense. It is just great man theory of history. A society is made of many moving parts.

    As to the failures of the glf, they were entirely technical. The rush to industrialise in a decentralised manner left agricultural production vulnerable to poor weather conditions. This was compounded with the fact that much of the country at the time had poor transportation and communications, and ruled by corrupt cardie, leading to a disastrous lack of effective coordination across the nation. It is only with higher level organization today that countries can mount effective disaster responses. The glf proves the opposite of your point.