I can’t say I’m an expert in the theory of this stuff, so big chance I’m very wrong.
All i know is experts have already likened the current “AI Boom” to the dot com bubble.
Nvidia might not be propping up the bubble in certain ways, but they could be deemed the center of the bubble. They went from a $370B market cap 3 yrs ago (around ChatGPT launch) to now being around $4.5T (peaking very close to $5T near the start of this month I think).
They could be the king in non-ai compute, but 99% of their revenue comes from b2b sales (and has done for a very long time I believe) so I can’t see them keeping any of those gains if we see an AI burst (this entire gain in stock seems very related to AI, not to any other advancements made for their chips to my monkey brain).
Most big (and small) tech companies are really buying into this AI hype, not sure if using AI has caused gains in stock market prices for certain companies, but I imagine we could see some drops here too (im thinking along the lines of hey your business “relies of ai tooling now” so mby u cant compete im gonna sell).
So I think all these businesses getting on the AI train could be bad too.
And final note again, if we see a burst, I think everyone panic selling could spread over to people panic selling everything and trying to get their hands on cold hard cash so their entire life savings dont vanish in an instant, so market wide we could see big drops? Certainly this could be very bad. I’m not very sure though on all the theory, I don’t think i’m smart enough to theorise this type of stuff, but I tried anyways. Maybe the govt have learned its lesson (pressing doubt rn) and will do ANYTHING to stop a crash, idk.
everyone panic selling could spread over to people panic selling everything and trying to get their hands on cold hard cash so their entire life savings dont vanish in an instant, so market wide we could see big drops?
Yeah, that’s basically what happens in a major correction. In fact, stock prices are valid basically the result of how many prior people are buying vs selling; more buyers than sellers causes prices to go up, more sellers than buyers cause prices to go down. Stock prices tend to have momentum precisely because of this (people try to jump on the bandwagon on the way up and jump off on the way down). And that’s also why we tend to see a quick recovery afterward once all the facts come out.
I don’t think this is like the .com or financial markets of the 2000s. But let’s say it is. If I bought at the peak of the .com bubble (March 10, 2000), I would’ve gotten 5.3% annualized growth over that 25 years (so $1k would be $3900-ish), assuming I don’t sell. The impact would be limited long term.
The AI bubble popping wouldn’t be the catastrophy many are making it out to be. I think it’ll be closer to the 2020 correction.
I think Nvidia is overvalued. I don’t think the economy will crash if AI crashes.
I can’t say I’m an expert in the theory of this stuff, so big chance I’m very wrong.
All i know is experts have already likened the current “AI Boom” to the dot com bubble.
Nvidia might not be propping up the bubble in certain ways, but they could be deemed the center of the bubble. They went from a $370B market cap 3 yrs ago (around ChatGPT launch) to now being around $4.5T (peaking very close to $5T near the start of this month I think).
They could be the king in non-ai compute, but 99% of their revenue comes from b2b sales (and has done for a very long time I believe) so I can’t see them keeping any of those gains if we see an AI burst (this entire gain in stock seems very related to AI, not to any other advancements made for their chips to my monkey brain).
Most big (and small) tech companies are really buying into this AI hype, not sure if using AI has caused gains in stock market prices for certain companies, but I imagine we could see some drops here too (im thinking along the lines of hey your business “relies of ai tooling now” so mby u cant compete im gonna sell).
So I think all these businesses getting on the AI train could be bad too.
And final note again, if we see a burst, I think everyone panic selling could spread over to people panic selling everything and trying to get their hands on cold hard cash so their entire life savings dont vanish in an instant, so market wide we could see big drops? Certainly this could be very bad. I’m not very sure though on all the theory, I don’t think i’m smart enough to theorise this type of stuff, but I tried anyways. Maybe the govt have learned its lesson (pressing doubt rn) and will do ANYTHING to stop a crash, idk.
Yeah, that’s basically what happens in a major correction. In fact, stock prices are valid basically the result of how many prior people are buying vs selling; more buyers than sellers causes prices to go up, more sellers than buyers cause prices to go down. Stock prices tend to have momentum precisely because of this (people try to jump on the bandwagon on the way up and jump off on the way down). And that’s also why we tend to see a quick recovery afterward once all the facts come out.
A 20-30% drop is a pretty big deal. It’s not anomalous though. There have been 19 major corrections (over 20% loss) over the past 150 years, meaning it happens every 7-10 years on average (150/19 ~= 7.8 years).
I don’t think this is like the .com or financial markets of the 2000s. But let’s say it is. If I bought at the peak of the .com bubble (March 10, 2000), I would’ve gotten 5.3% annualized growth over that 25 years (so $1k would be $3900-ish), assuming I don’t sell. The impact would be limited long term.
The AI bubble popping wouldn’t be the catastrophy many are making it out to be. I think it’ll be closer to the 2020 correction.
I think Nvidia is overvalued. I don’t think the economy will crash if AI crashes.