The Olduvai Theory states that the life expectancy of industrial civilization is approximately 100 years circa 1930-2030. It is defined by the ratio of world energy production and population (e)
The Olduvai Theory states that the life expectancy of industrial civilization is approximately 100 years circa 1930-2030. It is defined by the ratio of world energy production and population (e)
Why of course I’m not saying is false nor based on wrong assumptions. As you mention, the impossibility of infinite growth had been consider either by Malthusians, the Tragedy of the Commons and is the ultimate sign that capitalism is doomed to fail.
What I was pointing out is that AFAIK the main data used for some graphs is based solely on the per capita energy use worldwide, and that’s why the peak takes place just before the “Oil Crisis” of the 70s. I ignore if there are national or regional metrics which compliment the theory or if there are some evaluations about potential post-industrial outcomes. I’m not doubting that it points out an imminent collapse, it’s just a sincere doubt I have about these points within the theory.
Per capita energy expenditure is not the main problem, or rather it requires a more detailed specification and the relationship it has with a system of wild consumerism. We take into consideration the energy expenditure as a whole applied to the whole of humanity in its average term, where it turns out that a Western person has the same energy expenditure and CO2 footprint as an entire population of the third world, these occupying the majority of the population world. It is this wild consumerism, the use and throw away of things, the waste of food (up to 70% of the food produced in the Western world ends up in the garbage), the excess consumption of meat products, instead of 2- 3 times a week, we consume these 3 times a day 7 times a week, making this unsustainable causing massive livestock farming for this, another polluting factor, deforestation for agricultural use and livestock, overfishing with fish farms that destroy the livelihood of local fishermen, monocultures and patents on traditional local products for mere speculative reasons, etc. All this and more inevitably leads us to the inevitable decline and collapse of our society and to the poverty and misery of the rest in a world where MadMax seems like a paradise to us , This, if climate change and consequent cataclysms, do not already make survival on this planet impossible. This condition must be changed right now to avoid the worst, but I am afraid that with these criminals in suits who govern us and who do not see beyond their quotas in the stock market, it will be a practically impossible task.