Honestly, the root of every struggle session that community has had recently all comes down to how much that admin team enjoys LARPing as the Western stereotype version of a Communist Party politburo: as opaque as a black box. Evidently, it’s caused a birds of a feather problem, where the admins find communication challenges even among themselves and attracted the types that would withhold critical site information from each other like domain credentials, brushing the others off with disingenuous assurances that “they’ll definitely renew the domain, trust.” And the others apparently just went “okay” and waited all the way until the time ran out.
The best case scenario is that some rent-seeking site traffic squatter buys out the domain because it could easily be weaponized by a hostile reactionary freak aware of the site’s demographic to maliciously IP grab or phish as disgusting ideological revenge. Plenty of the users take multi-month or even years-long hiatuses from the site and there would be no channels to notify them by if they return and type in “hexbear.net.” There really should have been a front page permanent top banner blaring 24/7 that the domain might be lost and at least familiarizing people with the “chapo.chat” mirror from the moment they knew this could be a possibility since at least September.
The one possible upside of this is that with the site management being the way it is, I’d say that possibility of the site being some fed honeypot has definitely gone down a few notches.
I think the current administration is an example of being wannabe realists trying to emulate the line of Kennan, Kissinger, and Brzezinski just like Mearsheimer who spent the entire three years since the Ukraine War impotently shouting “we should be focusing on China” to the Biden government. I’ve seen some articles highlighting Rubio’s recent public statements and how that gusano, who made being anti-China his entire political career after his humiliation of being bullied by Trump calling him a “robot” off the Republican Presidential convention in 2016, is now quite firmly in the “clear-eyed realism” camp of the US “China threat” lobby.
The weird American nationalist conservative David Goldman wrote a piece framing Rubio as a “China realist” and covering some of Rubio’s recent Congressional report writings:
B of MoonOfAlabama also recently gushed over Rubio’s “pragmatism” in the past couple weeks when he spoke about how the unipolar moment was over in a recent speech. He highlighted some of Rubio’s comments:
I think through this tone alone, it’s clear that Rubio is gunning to be a Kissinger/Brzezinski clone. Goldman talked about how “a credible anti-Communist like Nixon could make a deal with China without accusations of selling out, and Secretary of State Rubio could repeat the exercise, according to this line of thinking.”
Ever since 1989, America’s China policy had been hijacked by the “human rights” warriors so it is true that it has been a while since America donned up the Kissinger pragmatic realpolitik mask for its relationship with China. I personally think there would be nothing that China could gain from another hypothetical “grand bargain” with America as the fundamental contradiction of American hegemony over the world is not something that can be kicked down the road under the guise of “peaceful co-existence,” as the errors of the post-WWII Soviet leadership with their constant searching for “detente” under Khrushchev ultimately amounting to nothing but some actor freak like Reagan calling them a “evil empire.” Some parts of the Chinese government was able to recognize this back in the 2010s when China rejected Obama’s proposal for a “G2.” As the Russian term “agreement-incapable” hints at, I don’t believe even a pragmatic veneered American China policy will be able to tolerate giving any real concessions to China.
As such, I think it’s much more likely that a more geopolitically pragmatic American foreign policy will simply be a MAGA Republican flavor of the China containment objective, primarily through attempting to pull Russia away from China (as Trump had talked about many times explicitly on the campaign trail and his special advisor to Russia Kellogg recently publicly fantasized about). The pragmatism realpolitik angle will be that anything is a possible candidate to be thrown under the bus for the goal of convincing Russia to distance itself from China, as what is happening right now with the EU vassals and the Ukraine fascists. Whether the modern Sino-Russian relationship, built on economic ties this time around rather than the ideological solidarity of the Sino-Soviet era, can withstand these American overtures under Trump will be the open question of the day.
Personally, I think that rationally speaking, China has done decent material work over the past three years since the Ukraine war in making itself economically indispensable to Russia, but given that past Russian leadership dissolved the USSR because they saw the inside of a Walmart and wanted to get pats on the back from the likes of Reagan, Bush and Thatcher, I frankly put nothing past the Westanbetung Russian ruling class.
The core issue for Trump and Rubio and their ilk in the current administration is that just because you know the recipe, as they claim to do, doesn’t necessarily mean you actually have the ability to bake the cake in the end. I think that will be the defining trait of their foreign policy.