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Joined 1 年前
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Cake day: 2023年11月21日

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  • I mean, I agree, but that doesn’t mean China could “win” in an offensive military action against Taiwan. Taiwan is literally a fortress and Taiwan/China cultural overlap is too significant to drive strong warmongering sentiment.

    An invasion is such a silly suggestion that it doesn’t even need consideration. At best, it would be a pyrrhic victory with millions dead on both sides and the island in ruins.

    The far more likely scenario is a blockade, sorry, “economic embargo” of Taiwan… Of course, Cuba is a clear example of how a blockade economic embargo doesn’t really work, so…


  • Has anyone read the founding documents of the PRC from 1949 1949? China’s policy has always been “we will unify with Taiwan, by military means if necessary.” It’s like saying “God Save The Queen” or “I pledge allegiance to the flag of the United States of America, and to the republic for which it stands, one nation under God, indivisible, with liberty and justice for all.” There’s a fundamental gap between what’s written officially as a matter of “this is what I believe” and what’s implemented in policy.

    If it didn’t warrant a hostile reaction a decade ago, it doesn’t warrant one today. China isn’t any closer to military action against Taiwan today than they were a decade ago. The First, Second, and Third Taiwan Strait Crises showed that the status quo would be basically impossible to flip militarily without millions of lives lost. It’s much easier to just expand trade, expand travel, expand cultural interchange, and expand immigration.



  • This is the Suez Crisis of the 21st century. Chinese companies like OOCL are unaffected by conditions in the Red Sea and are still able to freely transit, so why should China care?

    Edit: looks like in light of the US announcing Operation “Three Aircraft Carriers in the Red Sea”, Hong Kong’s OOCL and Taiwan’s Evergreen have also now suspended shipments through the Red Sea. A few days ago, they had just suspended shipments to Israel and operated as per usual.

    Truly, contributing to the security of the region by making sure that the few companies who could transit the Red Sea without being at risk are now at risk of getting caught in the crossfire.


























  • In October 2023, the increase in China’s year-by-year exports to Russia was explained primarily by an increase in product exports in Computers ($226M or 108%), Telephones ($220M or 50.3%), and Cars ($134M or 142%). In October 2023, the increase in China’s year-by-year imports  from Russia was explained primarily by an increase in product imports  in Crude Petroleum ($1.74B or 69.8%), Coal Briquettes ($444M or 193%), and Refined Copper ($279M or 191%).

    In October 2023, the increase in China’s year-by-year exports to Ukraine was explained primarily by an increase in product exports in Computers ($29M or 198%), Pesticides ($25M or 59.2%), and Electric Generating Sets ($21.6M or 2.86k%). In October 2023, the decrease in China’s year-by-year imports from Ukraine was explained primarily by an decrease in product imports in Barley ($-52.5M or -73.7%), Iron Ore ($-23.6M or -7.64%), and Other Vegetable Residues ($-15.7M or -15.5%).

    China’s making a killing selling computers to both sides. Unfortunately, China’s primary export to Ukraine (telecommunications equipment) is no longer viable if Ukraine wants to receive Western funding and China’s primary imports from Ukraine (agricultural products, iron ore) aren’t exactly easy to export during wartime.