While Michael’s assertion of a 50% chance of winning the race seems logical from his subjective viewpoint of “winning or not winning”, it’s mathematically incorrect. In a race with five equally skilled runners, the probability of any one runner winning is 1/5, or 20%. Michael’s simplification of the outcomes doesn’t correctly calculate the probability and indicates a possible misunderstanding of how to calculate odds.

Yes, this was made with ChatGPT. No, I’m not fun at parties.

Either wins or it doesnt are the two possible outcomes, their chances of happenning being 50% or different is a separate matter.

The answer is that we can’t know because each of those can have different skill levels. However, given that this seems to be a question t prove knowledge about odds of 1 in 5, let’s assume that they are all equally skilled, then it’s 1/5 = 20%.

No, this wasn’t made with ChatGPT. I don’t go to parties.