U.S. President Joe Biden said on Tuesday that Hamas had repeatedly raped women and mutilated their bodies during its Oct.7 assault on southern Israel, citing survivors and witnesses of the attacks.
TL/DR: I used to work in politics (in the U.S.) so I’m gonna be long-winded here but in short: I’m not sure how accurate any poll in Gaza can be. But here’s my thoughts:
Firstly, how accurate can polls be in any autocratic place? If your town was ruled by violent goons, would you tell some caller from an unknown number (or a stranger face-to-face) that you disapprove? Putin probably has great poll numbers.
Even if they are accurate, there’s always a “rally around the flag” effect at the start of a war. So, post Oct 7 polls might be weird. (Like, George W Bush had a 90% approval rating for a brief period.) It could be like asking “Do you support the troops?”
A third issue with Gaza polling is when they ask it like “Do you support Hamas or Fatah?” You can hate Hamas and not want corrupt, weak, ineffectual leaders shipped in from the West Bank.
So, I think it’s reasonable to expect the “true” margin of error to be way higher than a typical poll in a stable, peaceful, democratic country. If it’s +/- 20%, you can find a poll that suits your agenda.
https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/polls-show-majority-gazans-were-against-breaking-ceasefire-hamas-and-hezbollah I don’t know that there’s reliable evidence either way. That was written right after the war started so when they say ceasefire, they mean before Oct 7. I guess I’d say the polling is a mixed bag? I’m really not sure how to interpret Gaza polls.
TL/DR: I used to work in politics (in the U.S.) so I’m gonna be long-winded here but in short: I’m not sure how accurate any poll in Gaza can be. But here’s my thoughts:
Firstly, how accurate can polls be in any autocratic place? If your town was ruled by violent goons, would you tell some caller from an unknown number (or a stranger face-to-face) that you disapprove? Putin probably has great poll numbers.
Even if they are accurate, there’s always a “rally around the flag” effect at the start of a war. So, post Oct 7 polls might be weird. (Like, George W Bush had a 90% approval rating for a brief period.) It could be like asking “Do you support the troops?”
A third issue with Gaza polling is when they ask it like “Do you support Hamas or Fatah?” You can hate Hamas and not want corrupt, weak, ineffectual leaders shipped in from the West Bank.
So, I think it’s reasonable to expect the “true” margin of error to be way higher than a typical poll in a stable, peaceful, democratic country. If it’s +/- 20%, you can find a poll that suits your agenda.