Ah your explanation clears it up. That whole conditional probability thing is in the wikipedia article, but I see now that my explanation of the haircut thing was not correct.
I guess maybe this is a better formulation:
p1 = P(not being guilty | evidence found)
vs
p2 = P(evidence found)
Prosecutor’s fallacy would assert that, if p2 is small say 0.01%, then the defendent is guilty. But really the relevant probability is p1, which could be quite a bit larger than 0.01%.
Ah your explanation clears it up. That whole conditional probability thing is in the wikipedia article, but I see now that my explanation of the haircut thing was not correct.
I guess maybe this is a better formulation:
p1 = P(not being guilty | evidence found)
vs
p2 = P(evidence found)
Prosecutor’s fallacy would assert that, if p2 is small say 0.01%, then the defendent is guilty. But really the relevant probability is p1, which could be quite a bit larger than 0.01%.
Anyways let me know if you agree lol.