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Cake day: August 1st, 2023

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  • Think about all the oil you use as a regular person- for heating, transportation, fertilizer for your foods, etc.

    Now say the price goes up by 20%. Would you, in response, consume 20% less? Would you heat your home 20% less and eat 20% less and go to work 20% less? Of course not.

    The estimated 20% reduction in worldwide crude production means, somehow, somewhere, as a world we have to use 20% less oil. Then the question is, how high does the price have to rise to force people to consume 20% less?

    How expensive will it have to get to force people to heat 20% less and eat 20% less and drive 20% less? I don’t know, but it’s going to get worse, because we aren’t there yet.





  • What makes you question the story?

    Certainly the Trump administration had been lying about it losses, and they are releasing many face-saving coverup stories. It would be foolish to give them the benefit of the doubt.

    But the Kuwaiti friendly fire incident actually has lots of evidence to back it up. You can watch video of the “dogfight”- a Kuwaiti jet is clearly attacking US jet at very close range. The US jet appears to be surprised, as they fail to deploy most counter-measures.




  • Are you sure you aren’t underestimating the huge volume of demand that needs to be destroyed? I believe something like 20%-25% of demand needs to be destroyed, in both the crude and LNG markets.

    The last time demand was 20% lower than baseline was during the two worst months of Covid, when the majority of people were staying inside their home

    So the question is: how high does the price of oil have to get in order to force people to consume like they did under the worst of Covid?

    I’m no economist, but my gut feeling says it will be sustained significantly higher than $160/barrel.


  • They shrugged it off when churches were damaged in Gaza, why would this be any different?

    There’s this city in the West Bank called Bethlehem, I guess some famous dude was born there. The churches in Bethlehem weren’t able to have Christmas celebrations for two years due to Israel’s genocide.

    How did evangelicals respond? Polling says 65% support Israel’s military action in Gaza, even after two years of indiscriminate bombing, death marches, forced starvation, and torture camps.


  • If you’re really into Catholic lore and mythology, then yes, the Pope’s word holds a lot of weight. They believe in papal infallibility, which means that when the Pope meets certain very specific criteria, he is literally speaking for God and is thus perfect and unquestionable.

    Regular normie Catholics? They believe in the Pope the same way they believe in the Bible: it is the true word of God, but it’s too much of a bother to actually read it. They’re never reading papal edicts, they’re just reading news headlines about the pope like everyone else.


  • Suicidal thoughts in response to this news is really concerning. From what I understand, you aren’t being personally affected by this news. Go take care of yourself. Touch grass or do whatever you need to do.

    I think it will help to have a broader perspective. The US spends over $1 trillion each year on violence. When the bombs stop, then profits drop, and this is not acceptable to the capitalist class. When we stopped spending $60bln in Afghanistan, we instantly started spending $60bln in Ukraine. Now Ukraine is winding down, we will spend it on Venezuela. After that, Panama? Greenland? Cuba? Mexico? This cycle will continue until the military industrial complex is dismantled. That is unlikely to happen in our lifetimes.

    You are on the ethically correct side, and that matters. I find inspiration in the many generations of people who fought against slavery in the US. So many people, so many generations fought to end slavery, and most did not live to see the successful end. We must continue to fight, even if we do not see success in our lifetimes, we lay the groundwork for future generation’s success. We owe it to them.

    And if you do choose to end yourself, I respect your bodily autonomy, but please make sure you are of sound mind when you make that very serious decision. And consider following in the holy footsteps of Saint Luigi of Baltimore.





  • You’re really begging for downvotes with this comment, but I’m curious: how do you see this situation playing out? Do you think a couple steps ahead, or just react?

    My guess is that is going to go like this:

    1. Trump admin tries to install Machado as US puppet government in Venezuela.
    2. Mass popular uprising from the Venezuelan people, significant violence, attempts at deposing or assassinating Machado.
    3. US boots on the ground to prop up Machado regime. -or-
    4. US abandons Venezuela project, leaving devastation and chaos behind.
    5. Inevitable blowback, Americans killed.