This is an op-ed by Sir Niall Ferguson, Milbank Family senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University; and Moritz Schularick is president of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
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Germany’s rearmament is not going nearly fast enough. While Germany and Europe urgently need more weapons, at the current pace it will take years for them to roll off the production line and to constitute an arsenal sufficient to deter Russia. In no other area will Germany invest as much money in the coming years. And in no area is the absence of economic rationality more pronounced. Without swift changes, Germany is on a path to waste billions in taxpayers’ money for the delayed delivery of partly outdated defence capabilities.
Nearly four years after Russia’s assault on Ukraine, large German defence producers still work in single shifts, five days a week, instead of three shifts, seven days a week. The current production rate for the Taurus long-range guided missile system is only a few a month. The production of the Iris-T air defence system — which could provide crucial support to defend Ukraine’s energy infrastructure this winter and which is also essential for closing gaps in Europe’s air defence — is positively artisanal.
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At its heart, this is a task of industrial scaling, something German industry is well placed to deliver. As economic historians, we know that without the coordinating hand of the government and economic expertise, this kind of crash rearmament programme will not happen fast enough. … the obvious path would be to create a national defence industrial board to assess resources, set quantitative production goals, negotiate capacity with industry and fast-track dual-use innovation. … “German rearmament” are two ominous words for historians, just as “state co-ordination” is a phrase we tend to eschew as believers in freemarket economics. However, in the face of an increasingly dangerous and heavily armed Russia, co-ordinated rearmament is imperative. Above all, it needs to happen at warp speed. …
Berlin has woken up to the Russian threat, but its thinking is stuck in the past … British readers of a certain age may find it hard to be enthusiastic about German rearmament. As historians, we understand their unease. However, this is not the 1910s or the 1930s. The 2020s are a time when the UK has been in a mutual defence alliance with Germany for close to 80 years; … The arguments for a more rapid and technologically advanced German rearmament are more than just narrowly military. They are also economic and strategic. We have four recommendations that add up to an “Operation Warp Speed” for German rearmament. …
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Maybe… not?
AfD is on the brink of winning the next election… do we really want a fascist german army in the middle of europe again??!
We have one fascist army in the East of Europe, the one that has been invading Ukraine and engaging in a hybrid warfare against the rest of Europe (oh, yes, this fascist army’s government is also one of AfD’s main supporter).
Exactly… do we want to give russias allies the power to build the strongest military in europe?
I am for a european armed forces. Fuck nations, ficht together as one
Russia’s allies are not in power.
They are in slovakia, hungary, serbia and now also czechia…
Soon it could be Germany and my fucking homecountry of Austria too…
I guess it could, but I’d say it’s rather unlikely.
Still, I’d rather have a military than can stand up to Russia should things escalate instead of not having one on the off-chance democracy collapses.
That’s why I’m advocating for a co.bined european army. The chances that every single EU country turns fascist is unlikely. The chances for singular countries like germany to turn fascist are absolutely present.
The ironic thing is that I think the only realistic way to get an European army on a reasonable time scale would be pretty much the worst case scenario: A full conventional war with Russia without US support, which would literally force European countries to integrate their militaries beyond what we currently do in NATO.
The announcement, which was published on the group’s channel on Telegram on Nov. 17, read:
“We’re announcing a contest.
The first three people to send in photos with clearly executed prisoners in the background will receive a material reward in cryptocurrency from the Rusich Sabotage and Assault Reconnaissance Group.
Send your photos anonymously, we’ll definitely publish them.”
Executing prisoners is a direct violation of the Geneva Conventions. Under the Third Geneva Convention of 1949 and Additional Protocol I of 1977, the summary execution, torture, cruel treatment, and humiliation of POWs are all strictly prohibited. Those who order such acts are also considered war criminals.
Article 25 of the Rome Statute likewise establishes criminal responsibility for anyone who “orders, solicits, or induces” the commission of such crimes.
China said they cannot afford to let Russia lose. We don’t have the capacities for rare earth extraction. If things get hot, how are we supposed to sustain a drone war that requires many magnets?
On the other hand, who would gain air superiority? Would there be trench warfare with drones if the front can be breached and tanks can rush into the back of the front? Nato won’t push slowly like Russia.
China says a lot of things, but then does not act on them. For a no limits friendship with Russia, China so far refuses to deliver arms, their banks bend to Western sanctions, oil imports are down due to US sanctions and so forth. They are happy to have a weak Russia. It gives them access to Russian natural resources for cheap. At the same time both countries have a bad history, including some actual fighting between the Soviets and Chinese.
If there is a war against China, then it is over Taiwan and not Russia.
China would still lose a war against the US. They have a huge interest in not rocking the boat to make it difficult for the US to fabricate a just war.
Russia and China have settled their border issues before the conflict. They are in this together.
China has no need to conquer Taiwan. Once they are technological leaders and have fancy stuff, Taiwanese people will want to join.
China was patient for decades. They won’t do something stupid now.
Russia and China have settled their border issues before the conflict.
Let’s see how that evolves the weaker and dependent Russia gets. Wouldn’t be the first time the weakness of a state gets exploited by the stronger one.
There’s other voices saying China might want Russia to lose. That way they can take advantage of the situation and acquire coal and oil from Russia for cheap. They have an insatiable demand for energy and it increased even more with AI.
China has their own coal in Inner Mongolia. I think Russia is actually short of coal.
Yes, they dig up a lot of that and they’re number 4 with earth’s coal reserves. Though China has grown substantially in the last decades. Most products come from there and they really need a lot of energy. They massively invest in other forms of electricity as well to keep growing. They’re now trying to beat the US at artificial intelligence and that needs yet more water and electricity. Russia has the second largest coal reserves on earth. So more than China. And they don’t have much of an economy to use it themselves, so naturally they’ll have to export it. If it’s cheaper to dig it up there, or the Russians get desperate, it might make sense to acquire Russian coal. Russia is in possession of the largest natural gas reserves as well. And there’s a lot of other stuff in Siberia. And I’m not sure about the water situation there, and what that means for the region up to Lake Baikal.
China said they cannot afford to let Russia lose.
So they threaten us with war?
If we fight in Ukraine then yes. Otherwise they just have to do sanctions to the EU and supply Russia.
But you know my opinion, WW3 is coming no matter what.
I really don’t think that’s how it’ll turn out. China isn’t interested in Ukraine. And they’ve outpaced Russia at pretty much everything. They don’t really need them that much any more. And ideology has diverged as well. Their own interests are in the South China Sea. So I bet this is more or less Russian propaganda how we can’t unite and defend against Russia. China might take it as an invitation to start their own thing, though. Us being distracted with Russia might enable them to finally start their invasion of Taiwan, or something like that. And they might do the same thing if we don’t defend against Putin, hence show how we’re divided/uncoordinated and weak, and malicious actors can just take whatever they want.
Don’t forget that the US want to contain China. Russia is China’s insurance against a naval blockade.
How is Russia an insurance against that?
They can get all missing resources from Russia.
That’s a bit of a stretch. I’m sure Russia could supply them with oil, but you can’t just shift China’s sea trade to land like that. So a blockade would still have a massive impact. Not a very good insurance.