No, it is never the middle that decides elections in the US. Democrats win when turnout is high, and Republicans win when turnout is low.
Know how AOC won her seat from Pelosi’s presumed successor who was considered unbeatable? She focused her campaign on unlikely voters. When she actually spoke to those people, they showed up to vote. That’s the path to victory for Democrats.
Hillary dominated with moderate voters in 2016. She was also an uninspiring elitist which led to terrible turnout. Biden wasn’t much better, but four years of Trump drove record breaking turnout,band Biden won.
It’s all about energy and engagement. Biden sure isn’t going to bring that next year, but maybe there is enough anti-Trump sentiment left to drive turnout. Of course Trump might not be the candidate. I think Biden might beat DeSantis, but not a slightly more obscure candidate like Nikki Haley.
You are right about the energy level scenario, but I wasn’t speaking towards that. I’m assuming that unless a candidate really screws up that everyone will come out to vote, since we’re very much in a party warish voting mode these days.
I was speaking about what the size and a large turnout vote, the people who are not already baked in for one party or another, always vote just for one party, and when there is a large turnout.
Basically everyone else, the centrists, those are rarely vote, those who literally jump back and forth and decide on a case by case basis based on the individual running in every election, etc.
No, it is never the middle that decides elections in the US. Democrats win when turnout is high, and Republicans win when turnout is low.
Know how AOC won her seat from Pelosi’s presumed successor who was considered unbeatable? She focused her campaign on unlikely voters. When she actually spoke to those people, they showed up to vote. That’s the path to victory for Democrats.
Hillary dominated with moderate voters in 2016. She was also an uninspiring elitist which led to terrible turnout. Biden wasn’t much better, but four years of Trump drove record breaking turnout,band Biden won.
It’s all about energy and engagement. Biden sure isn’t going to bring that next year, but maybe there is enough anti-Trump sentiment left to drive turnout. Of course Trump might not be the candidate. I think Biden might beat DeSantis, but not a slightly more obscure candidate like Nikki Haley.
You are right about the energy level scenario, but I wasn’t speaking towards that. I’m assuming that unless a candidate really screws up that everyone will come out to vote, since we’re very much in a party warish voting mode these days.
I was speaking about what the size and a large turnout vote, the people who are not already baked in for one party or another, always vote just for one party, and when there is a large turnout.
Basically everyone else, the centrists, those are rarely vote, those who literally jump back and forth and decide on a case by case basis based on the individual running in every election, etc.