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collapse of US
Maybe it will become a federation of mostly independent states… oh wait :)
The problem is that this federation of mostly independent states has one giant military with over 800 bases around the globe.
Which would turn into corporate sponsored mercenaries in your “collapse of the US” scenario. So basically the same as now.
I think that if US breaks up there wouldn’t be a single unified military anymore. Plenty of states hate each other, so it’s far more likely that there would be a bunch of states pursuing their own interests as opposed to a single nation projecting unified power globally. Collapse of US would certainly lead to the end of global hegemony as well.
We can also look at what happened after USSR collapsed, and that was a far more civilized process than what will happen when US collapses.
Only if we don’t organize.