I always said it would be 2024! All jokes aside, I’ve been using it since it was unironic to proclaim the current year as the one where Linux takes over on desktop. But over the years it became clear that players like Google with their chrome book and MS with Windows and Office would never let this happen, even if it meant giving millions of computers away to schools, nonprofits and foreign governments to put in THEIR schools, exactly like they’ve been doing for ages. The idea is to teach everyone an os in grade school, and they stick with it for life, so that’s why your kid got a free Chromebook or windows laptop WOW LOOK MOM A FREE COMPUTER!!! That, and the fact that it slurps up everything you search and do, everywhere you browse and copies every file you save to the thing (don’t believe me, go read their TOSs).
Add to all that the other, much more elegant option of osx, which comes at a cost, but nevertheless eats into Linux’s potential market share.
So all it would take is one billionaire to start feeding schools Linux machines and this could be turned around in a decade. I’m in the US where windows rules, but I’ve seen places in Europe where they teach Linux in grade school
The nasty truth is, most folks don’t have a computer at home anymore. They do everything on their phone. The desktop is reserved for the office worker, which is itself a double-edged sword as the average office worker is so clueless about the computer they’re sitting in front of that it could be replaced with a Linux desktop without them knowing anything other than “IT changed this and I don’t like it” but the flip side of that is that there’s a generation of IT people who learned their craft during the Ballmer era and are now in positions where they run the IT departments (and those who learned before and Linux kinda sucked back then). If they aren’t too jaded to try something new they’re too tired or too scared of the long term ramifications of trying something so radically different
As someone in the initial “hop around and pick up as many skills and resume line items as possible” phase of my IT career, I’ve already heard the exact reasons why Windows is still so prevelent “our company’s client base is largely farmers. Sure you might have the skills to be a Linux admin but who would replace you whenever you move on? Good luck finding a good Linux admin around here at a rate we can pay!” “Windows Server is so much easier to deploy and troubleshoot without having to remember the commands, why would I bother learning Linux which is much harder to learn when employers around here aren’t even looking for Linux experience” and even my friends who appreciate the geekiness and will openly lab out ideas in their free time for fun have to stay realistic about how stable or how janky every part of the given software solution is, plus the value of a support contract where you can answer the “why is this not fixed” questions with “I have a ticket in with the vendor”
Perhaps. But by then it certainly would be the year of the Linux desktop by then. What other operating system can handle years that long, starting from Jan 1, 1970 to Jan 1, 6.460263446E+5814. Linux, that’s what.
The crazy thing is more and more is purely being done through a web browser as time goes on, so it’s becoming more and more possible to switch at the drop of a dime for people
so true. I use very few native applications and do 90% of everything in a browser. Notable exceptions: Libreoffice, FileZilla, Thunderbird and an image editor
I always said it would be 2024! All jokes aside, I’ve been using it since it was unironic to proclaim the current year as the one where Linux takes over on desktop. But over the years it became clear that players like Google with their chrome book and MS with Windows and Office would never let this happen, even if it meant giving millions of computers away to schools, nonprofits and foreign governments to put in THEIR schools, exactly like they’ve been doing for ages. The idea is to teach everyone an os in grade school, and they stick with it for life, so that’s why your kid got a free Chromebook or windows laptop WOW LOOK MOM A FREE COMPUTER!!! That, and the fact that it slurps up everything you search and do, everywhere you browse and copies every file you save to the thing (don’t believe me, go read their TOSs).
Add to all that the other, much more elegant option of osx, which comes at a cost, but nevertheless eats into Linux’s potential market share.
So all it would take is one billionaire to start feeding schools Linux machines and this could be turned around in a decade. I’m in the US where windows rules, but I’ve seen places in Europe where they teach Linux in grade school
The nasty truth is, most folks don’t have a computer at home anymore. They do everything on their phone. The desktop is reserved for the office worker, which is itself a double-edged sword as the average office worker is so clueless about the computer they’re sitting in front of that it could be replaced with a Linux desktop without them knowing anything other than “IT changed this and I don’t like it” but the flip side of that is that there’s a generation of IT people who learned their craft during the Ballmer era and are now in positions where they run the IT departments (and those who learned before and Linux kinda sucked back then). If they aren’t too jaded to try something new they’re too tired or too scared of the long term ramifications of trying something so radically different
As someone in the initial “hop around and pick up as many skills and resume line items as possible” phase of my IT career, I’ve already heard the exact reasons why Windows is still so prevelent “our company’s client base is largely farmers. Sure you might have the skills to be a Linux admin but who would replace you whenever you move on? Good luck finding a good Linux admin around here at a rate we can pay!” “Windows Server is so much easier to deploy and troubleshoot without having to remember the commands, why would I bother learning Linux which is much harder to learn when employers around here aren’t even looking for Linux experience” and even my friends who appreciate the geekiness and will openly lab out ideas in their free time for fun have to stay realistic about how stable or how janky every part of the given software solution is, plus the value of a support contract where you can answer the “why is this not fixed” questions with “I have a ticket in with the vendor”
I guess you’re right. The entire desktop is dead or dying, except for offices and schools.
I dont think the universe will exist in 2024!(or 6.460263446 E+5814) years
Perhaps. But by then it certainly would be the year of the Linux desktop by then. What other operating system can handle years that long, starting from Jan 1, 1970 to Jan 1, 6.460263446E+5814. Linux, that’s what.
Well what if I install Linux on my “free school Chromebook/Windows laptop/MacBook”?
Better figure out how to dual boot, because all the school software will be MS or Google-dependent. Mac is a whole different story
The crazy thing is more and more is purely being done through a web browser as time goes on, so it’s becoming more and more possible to switch at the drop of a dime for people
so true. I use very few native applications and do 90% of everything in a browser. Notable exceptions: Libreoffice, FileZilla, Thunderbird and an image editor