Hey everyone, have you heard the news? The singularity is just three years away! That’s right, in just a few short years, we’ll see artificial intelligence surpass human intelligence, and we’ll enter a new era of technological advancement. This is going to revolutionize the world as we know it, and I, for one, am incredibly excited about it. Imagine all the incredible innovations that we’ll see in just a few short years. It’s mind-blowing!

      • loathesome dongeater@lemmygrad.ml
        4·
        2 years ago

        I don’t have the expertise to say that. Three years for anything that remotely resembles artificial general intelligence is pure delusion though. Large language models are being overhyped because journalists are rubes and it helps boost the valuation of tech companies that peddle AI snake oil. They are great at some things but the scope of their utlity has been overblown by a large extent.

      • loathesome dongeater@lemmygrad.mlEnglish
        2·
        2 years ago

        But there is a stunning diversity of opinion about when general AI may arrive, according to published expert surveys. For example this study finds 50% of AI researchers accord a 50% probability to “High level machine intelligence” (HLMI) by 2040, while 20% say that 50% probability will not be reached until 2100 or later. Similarly, this survey finds an aggregated probability distribution with a 25%-75% confidence interval (comparable to Metaculus sliders below) ranging from 2040 to well past 2100.